The Portland Press Herald ran an op-ed by Edward Erickson, a graduate student from Bowdoinham, that lays out an interesting perspective on the relationship of the Iraq War to the upcoming Maine Senate contest:

Allen may be misreading discontent over war
Iraq doesn't seem to have been the driving issue for Maine voters in 2006, and likely won't be this year.
U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, the Democratic challenger in Maine's 2008 senatorial campaign, is determined to make the war in Iraq the catalyst for unseating the incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins.
For Allen, the Iraq war is a caldron in which the entirety of Maine's woes are beginning to boil.
In a recent op-ed piece in the Bangor Daily News, Allen places the war within the context of its cost in dollars. He notes, "The Congressional Research Service reports that we are spending $10 billion a month on the Iraq war a staggering $3,816 per second."
It's money that, he claims, could be better used to ease the price of fuel, health insurance and college tuition.
While Allen may be correct in his assessment, he may very well be overestimating the importance of the Iraq war in his election bid.

Erickson contends that, even though 2006 was hailed as an anti-war victory for Democrats, Maine's landslide re-election of Republican Senator Olympia Snowe was evidence that Iraq was not the primary focal point for voters of this state. Erickson goes on to warn that this fact, coupled with the increasingly positive news out of Iraq, bodes ill for Allen's bid to unseat Senator Collins:

A poll released by the Pew Research Center on Nov. 27 suggests that Americans who believe the military effort in Iraq is going fairly well has increased to 48 percent, up 18 percentage points since February.
As security continues to improve in Iraq and benchmarks are met, Bush's new strategy appears to be a marked improvement over the past. As a result, Maine voters are less likely to tip Democratic as a result of the war.
Based on Maine voters' record in the past, and on the present conditions in Iraq, Allen may very well be making a mistake by couching the terms of the debate within the discourse of the Iraq war.
While he is resolute in his position, he may also be out of touch with Maine voters.

Erickson's point is amplified by a recent Rasmussen poll that shows a dramatic shift in sentiment toward the Iraq war. The poll showed 47% of Americans believe that we are winning the war on terror, the highest level since 2005, and up from a low of 33% in 2007. The numbers are similar for the situation in Iraq:

The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that 35% of all American voters expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 32% expect the situation to get worse. That’s the first time in years that a plurality has given a positive assessment on the situation in Iraq. The recent increase in optimism is substantial. Just four months ago, in July, 49% of American voters offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq and only 23% expected things to get better.

Rasmussen also found that the Republican Party is growing:

The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February.

Interesting developments. Of course, sentiments always change, but I wonder if Mr. Allen is rethinking his partisan monomania, as it becomes clearer and clearer how out of touch his positions are with Maine voters.